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<br />~ '2-toß <br />San Marcos Election Analysis - Final Report / January 10, 1994 / Page 2 <br />The first data column in the Appendix Table contains total returns by candidate. <br />The figure appearing next to the election designation is the total turnout for that <br />contest. The three remaining data columns contain the substance of our report, <br />estimates of the share of votes cast by each racial/ethnic group for each candidate. <br />We did not prepare estimates for all the candidates listed. In accordance with our <br />analytical strategy, we chose only certain candidates for analysis in each election: <br />0 the winning (or top-polling) candidate <br />0 each ethnic minority candidate, regardless of whether the candidate won <br />0 any candidate who garnered a majority/plurality of votes cast by any of the <br /> three racial/ethnic groups, regardless of whether that candidate won or was <br /> an ethnic minority candidate. <br />Recalling the purpose of our analysis, to estimate patterns of racial/ethnic support <br />for candidates in contested races, we addressed two questions for each of the 29 <br />elections we examined: <br />0 What pattern of racial/ethnic support did the winning candidate receive? <br />0 What pattern of racial/ethnic support did ethnic minority candidates receive? <br />In essence, we asked: { <br />0 Who favored the winning candidate? <br />0 How did ethnic minority candidates fare? <br />These questions are designed to address potential racial/ethnic bias (polarization) in <br />voting patterns. <br />FINDINGS <br /> , <br />With respect to support for the winning (or top-polling) candidate in the contested <br />City elections for Mayor and Council between 1980 and 1993, we found that: <br />0 Of the 29 elections for which majority/plurality Hispanic support could be <br /> determined, Hispanic voters supported winning (or top-polling) candidates <br /> 16 times -- a success rate of 55.2% <br />0 Of the 16 elections for which majority/plurality Black support could be <br /> determined, Black voters supported winning (or top-polling) candidates <br /> 10 times n a success rate of 62.5 % <br />0 Of the 29 elections for which majority/plurality Anglo support could be <br /> determined, Anglo voters supported winning (or top-polling) candidates <br /> 25 times -- a success rate of 86.2%. <br />While Anglo voters supported the winning candidate more frequently than Hispanic <br />and Black voters, all three demographic groups have seen preferred candidates win <br />