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;LtoJ::> San Marcos Election Analysis - Final Report / January 10, 1994 / Page 4 There is no apparent trend in these three findings; that is, the statements made do not apply to a specific time period, such as the late 1980s, but rather characterize the entire 13-year period under study. CONCLUSIONS We have examined the official returns of the contested municipal elections of the City of San Marcos between 1980 and 1993, with particular attention to patterns of candidate support among three major racial/ethnic population groups, Hispanics, Blacks and Anglos. We have conducted each phase of our research using generally accepted methods of demographic and statistical analysis. Bringing together key findings presented in this report, we can draw the following general conclusions: 0 With res'pect to the ability to elect candidates of choice, between 1980 and 1993, Anglos in San Marcos supported the winning (or top-polling) candidate more frequently than either Blacks or Hispanics, but both Black and Hispanic voters still favored the winning (or top-polling) candidate at least 50% of the time. 0 Hispanic voters routinely supported Hispanic candidates; there was just one exception to this pattern between 1980 and 1993. This 'Consistent pattern of support indicates a relatively high degree of political cohesiveness among Hispanic voters. 0 Black voters did favor Hispanic candidates between 1980 and 1993, but the sample of elections used to draw this conclusion has limited reliability. 0 In elections involving an Hispanic candidate, where both Black and Hispanic majority/plurality support could be determined, Black and Hispanic voters do appear politically cohesive at the polls. Judging from a broader perspective, however, Black and Hispanic voters favored the same candidate in only 7 of the 16 races where Black support could be determined. At this more general level, Black-Hispanic cohesiveness at the polls is less apparent. 0 While Anglo voters generally did not support Hispanic candidates running in City elections between 1980 and 1993, neither did Anglos vote effectively and consistently as a bloc to defeat Hispanic candidates; indeed, even when Anglos failed to support the Hispanic candidate, the Hispanic candidate still frequently enjoyed strong Anglo cross-over support (routinely between 20% and 30%). While other evidence might be presented to support or oppose the districting of the City Council, the question ultimately must be addressed within the framework set forth by the U.S. Supreme Court in its landmark voting rights decision in Thornburq v. Gingles 478 U.S. 30 (1986). Arising from this decision is the Gingles threshold test, as it has come to be known, which identifies three preconditions that must be met to establish a valid claim under the federal Voting Rights Act: