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Macroeconomy <br />Outlook <br />Successful Policy (unlikely): <br />The administration takes only symbolic action on trade. Congress compromises on <br />appropriations and passes a large rise in the debt ceiling. With financial and supply <br />chain disruptions off the table, businesses focus on the tax cuts designed to <br />increase investment spending and the opportunities available from an effective <br />infrastructure plan. Growth remains above 2 percent for the next five years. <br />Recession (unlikely): <br />Policy mistakes and risky financial market decisions in the United States, Europe, <br />and China trigger a global financial crisis. The Fed and the European Central Bank <br />act to ease financial conditions, and the financial system recovers relatively rapidly. <br />GDP falls temporarily during 2018, but subsequently recovers. <br />15 <br /> <br />