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AIRPORT MASTER PLAN <br /> <br />FIGURE 3-6 <br />SUMMARY OF BASED AIRCRAFT FORECASTS, 2019-2039 <br />SAN MARCOS REGIONAL AIRPORT <br />400 <br />350 <br />300 <br />t <br />f <br />a <br />r <br />c <br />r <br />i <br />A <br /> <br />f <br />250 <br />o <br /> <br />r <br />e <br />b <br />m <br />u <br />N <br />200 <br />150 <br />100 <br />201820192024202920342039 <br />Base YearPAL 1PAL 2PAL 3PAL 4PAL 5 <br />Planning Activity Level/Year <br />FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) <br />HYI TAF - Growth Rate for Based Aircraft (3.03%) <br />HYI TAF - Growth Rate for BA w/Flight School Adjustment <br />FAA TAF - Texas State-Wide Based Aircraft Growth Rate (1.13%) <br />FAA TAF - Southwest Region Based Aircraft Growth Rate (1.04%) <br />Growth Rate Based on Projected Employment Growth Rate (2.12%) <br />Combined Population Growth Rate for Austin-Round Rock and San Antonio-New Braunfels MSAs (2.91%) <br />Average (PREFERRED) <br /> <br />Source: Garver Forecast Data for HYI, 2019 and FAA Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2018-2038. <br />The current FAA TAF shows the number of based aircraft at the San Marcos <br />Regional Airport in 2018 to be significantly lower than the actual number <br />determined through the 2018 aircraft count (134 based aircraft vs. 200 based <br />aircraft). As a result, the TAF was deemed unreliable as a forecast of future based <br />aircraft activity. Additionally, several regression and trend analysis forecasts were <br />run but were deemed to be statistically unreliable and, as a result, were excluded. <br /> <br />Activity Forecasts Chapter Page 21 of 36 <br />October 2020 <br /> <br />