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SAN MARCOS TRANSIT PLAN I FINALREPORT <br />City of San Marcos <br />Paratransit Scenario Analysis <br />In Scenario 1, the reduction in service areawould result in an estimated 27% decrease in <br />ridership, which woul d likely allow the city to reduce its operating costs. In Scenario 2, the change <br />to the paratransit service alone area would result in a minor increase in ridership (estimated at <br />less than 1%), which can be accommodated within the existing system capacity. <br />To estimate the impacts of eliminating fares, data from two paratransit systems that recently <br />enacted such a policy (Mountain Line — Missoula, MT and Chapel Hill Transit —Chapel Hill, NC) <br />were used. When on -board fares are eliminated, ridership demand can be expected to increase <br />between 23% and 41% on paratransit service. The following table shows the estimated change in <br />ridership, revenue hours, operating cost, and vehicle needs associated with a low- and high-level <br />increase resulting from the elimination of fares. By reducing the paratransit service area in <br />Scenario 1, existing service levels wouldbe able to accommodate the increase in demand, even at <br />a high level. The only associated costwouldbetheloss of fare revenue. If a low level of ridership <br />increase is associated with the elimination of on -board fares, it is possible that paratransit <br />revenue hours could be reduced, saving approximately $ 68, 000 annually. <br />Scenario 2, with no changesto the existing service area policy, would require between $94,000 <br />and $175,000 in additional operating funds to accommodate ridership increases. Ridership levels <br />associatedwith a high-end response to the elimination of fares would also require the addition of <br />one vehicle to provide additional capacity at peaktimes. <br />Paratransit Scenarios Ridership and Cost Projections <br />Nelson\Nygaard Consulting Associates, Inc. 14-6 <br />