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AIRPORT MASTER PLAN <br /> <br /> Forecast Utilizing National or Regional Projections The FAA produces an <br />annual aerospace forecast that includes its projections regarding the growth <br />of aviation throughout the United States. The FAA utilizes a variety of data <br />sources to help formulate its forecast including aircraft sales/delivery data, <br />the number of active pilots, economic growth protections, etc. The annual <br />growth rates provided by the FAA may be utilized to formulate growth <br />forecast for an airport. Additionally, many of these national forecasts are <br />further segmented into regional and state level forecasts. These forecasts <br />can also be used to formulate a growth forecast for an airport. <br /> Market Analysis This forecast method typically uses an easily identifiable <br />independent variable such as population or income, which has a high <br />correlation or an indirect cause-and-effect relationship within certain <br />segments of the GA industry. The market analysis techniqueoften employs a <br />static and dynamic variable relationship between community factors and GA <br />trends that aids in predicting aviation growth based on forecast community <br />indicators such as population. <br />The application of these forecasting techniques for based aircraft and aircraft <br />operations at the San Marcos Regional Airport are discussed below. <br />F ORECAST OF B ASED A IRCRAFT <br />Determining the number and type of aircraft anticipated to be based at an airport is <br />a vital component in creating a development plan. Depending on the potential <br />market and forecast, the airport should tailor the development plan to the unique <br />characteristics of the anticipated demand. <br />The number and type of aircraft that can be expected to base at an airport is <br />dependent on several factors, such as available facilities, airport operator services, <br />airport proximity and accessibility, and the local/regional economy. Many aircraft <br />operators are particularly sensitive to both the quality and location of their basing <br />facilities, with proximity of home and work often identified as the primary <br />consideration in the selection of an aircraft-basing location. <br />In 2018, a based aircraft count was conducted at the airport. Currently, the San <br />Marcos Regional Airport has 200 total based aircraft (160 single-engine piston <br /> <br />Activity Forecasts Chapter Page 18 of 36 <br />October 2020 <br /> <br />