Laserfiche WebLink
AIRPORT MASTER PLAN <br /> <br /> <br />improvements will occur as demand increases. <br /> Greater aircraft utilization resulting from airfield and terminal area <br />improvements can be both directly and indirectly be linked to economic <br />development activity. <br />F ORECAST M ETHODOLOGIES <br />The development of an aviation activity forecast involves analytical and judgmental <br />assumptions to realize the highest level of forecast confidence. The aircraft <br />operations and based aircraft forecasts are developed in accordance with national <br />and regional trends, and in context with the inventory findings and socioeconomic <br />trends. The forecasts developed here begin with baseline information from 2018 <br />with 2019 as the first forecast year. National trends and forecasts are provided by <br />the FAA Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2018-2038. <br />Various forecast techniques can be used to develop baseline forecasts including: <br /> Trend Analysis Trend analysis is the simplest and most familiar form of <br />forecasting and is also one of the most widely used. This forecasting <br />technique uses historic data as a basis to develop aforecast for the future. <br />An assumption of this forecast method is that historic levels of aviation <br />demands will continue and influence similar linear progressions in the <br />future. Though this assumption seems broad in its application, it can serve as <br />a reliable benchmark against other forecast methods. <br /> Regression Analysis In a regression model, the forecast of aviation demand <br />(the dependent variable) is projected on the basis of one or more external <br />indicators (the independent variables). Historic values for both the <br />dependent and independent variables are analyzed to determine their <br />relationship. Once defined, this relationship is used to project the dependent <br />variable with a forecast or projection of the independent variable(s). In <br />aviation forecasting, an example of the dependent variable is based aircraft. <br />Population or median household income levels are commonly used <br />independent variables that aid in the projection of aviation growth. <br /> <br />Activity Forecasts Chapter Page 17 of 36 <br />October 2020 <br /> <br />