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AIRPORT MASTER PLAN <br /> <br />FIGURE 3-8 <br />AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECAST <br />SAN MARCOS REGIONAL AIRPORT <br />150,000 <br />140,000 <br />130,000 <br />120,000 <br />s <br />n <br />o <br />i <br />t <br />110,000 <br />a <br />r <br />e <br />p <br />O <br /> <br />100,000 <br />f <br />o <br /> <br />r <br />e <br />b 90,000 <br />m <br />u <br />N <br />80,000 <br />70,000 <br />60,000 <br />50,000 <br />201820192024202920342039 <br />Base YearPAL 1PAL 2PAL 3PAL 4PAL 5 <br />Planning Acitivity Level/Year <br />FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) <br />FAA Aerospace Forecast - Active GA & Air Taxi Fleet Hours Flown Growth Rate (.8%) <br />FAA Aerospace Forecast - Total Fuel Consumption Growth Rate (1.4%) <br />Growth Rate Based on Projected Employment Growth Rate (2.12%) <br />Trend Line Forecast Based on 2012-2018 Tower OPS Data (PREFERRED) <br />Combined Population Growth Rate for Austin-Round Rock and San Antonio-New Braunfels MSAs (2.91%) <br />Growth Rate Based on Austin-Round Rock MSA Population Growth Rate (3.53%) <br />Average <br /> <br />Source: Garver Forecast Data for HYI, 2019 and FAA Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2018-2038. <br />The San Marcos Regional Airport is expected to see a short-term decline in aircraft <br />operations due to a reduced number of flight school operations. However, <br />operations are expected to increase steadily in the long run due to economic and <br />population increases in the region. Consequently, the trend line forecast was <br />selected as the preferred aircraft operations forecast for the San Marcos Regional <br />Airport as it shows a decline in operations in the short term but long term gains. <br /> <br />Activity Forecasts Chapter Page 26 of 36 <br />October 2020 <br /> <br />