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<br />much the same manner as in the past. <br />As broad as this assumption may be, <br />the trend line projection does serve as a <br />reliable benchmark for comparing other <br />projections. <br /> <br />Correlation analysis provides a measure <br />of direct relationship between two <br />separate sets of historic data. Should <br />there be a reasonable correlation <br />between the data sets, further <br />evaluation using regression analysis <br />may be employed. <br /> <br />In regression analysis, values for the <br />aviation demand in question (i.e. based <br />aircraft), the dependent variable, are <br />projected on the basis of one or more <br />other indicators, the independent <br />variable. Historical values for all <br />variables are analyzed to determine the <br />relationship between the independent <br />and dependent variables. These <br />relationships may then be used, with <br />projected values of the independent <br />variable, to project corresponding <br />values of the dependent variable. <br /> <br />Market share analysis involves a <br />historical review of the airport activity <br />as a percentage, or share, of a larger <br />regional, state, or national aviation <br />market. A historical market share <br />trend is determined providing an <br />expected market share for the future. <br />These shares are then multiplied by the <br />forecasts ofthe larger geographical area <br />to produce a market share projection. <br />This method has the same limitations <br />as trend line projections, but can <br />provide a useful check on the validity of <br />other forecasting techniques. <br /> <br />It is important to note that one should <br />not assume a high level of confidence in <br /> <br />forecasts that extend beyond five years. <br />Facility and financial planning usually <br />require at least a ten-year preview, <br />since it often takes more than five years <br />to complete a major facility <br />development program. However, it is <br />important to use forecasts which do not <br />overestimate revenue-generating <br />capabilities or understate demand for <br />facilities needed to meet public (user) <br />needs. <br /> <br />A wide range of factors are known to <br />influence the aviation industry and can <br />have significant impacts on the extent <br />and nature of air service provided in <br />both the local and national market. <br />Technological advances in aviation have <br />historically altered, and will continue to <br />change, the growth rates in aviation <br />demand over time. The most obvious <br />example is the impact of jet aircraft on <br />the aviation industry, which resulted in <br />a growth rate that far exceeded <br />expectations. Such changes are <br />difficult, if not impossible to predict, <br />and there is simply no mathematical <br />way to estimate their impacts. Using a <br />broad spectrum of local, regional and <br />national socioeconomic and aviation <br />information, and analyzing the most <br />current aviation trends, forecasts are <br />presented in the following sections. <br /> <br />The following forecast analysis <br />examines each of the aviation demand <br />categories for expected at San Marcos <br />Municipal Airport over the next twenty <br />years. These include commercial airline <br />potential, general aviation and military <br />activity. Each segment will be <br />examined individually and then <br />collectively to provide an understanding <br />of the overall aviation activity at San <br /> <br />2-5 <br />