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reaching 65,172 by 2020. The City of Austin is projected to reach 973,832 residents by 2020, growing at an average annual rate of 1.96 percent. EMPLOYMENT Historical and forecast employment data for the Austin-San Marcos MSA and Hays and Caldwell Counties is also presented in Table 2A. Total employment for the MSA and both counties have increased at a greater average annual rate than population between 1990 and 1999. Over thGl period, employment in the MSA increased by 4.83 percent annually compared to the 3.26 percentage increase in population. Hays County employment increased at an average annual rate of 5.97 percent, more than two percent higher than the county's average annual population growth. Employment forecasts for the MSA and both Hays and Caldwell Counties indicate a slower, more moderate growth, increasing at an annual average rate of 2.33 percent, 2.41 percent, and 2.34 percent respectively by 2020. PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME (PCPI) Table 2A compares per capita personal income (adjusted to $1992) for the MSA, Hays County, and Caldwell County. The Austin-San Marcos MSA had an adjusted PCPI of$23,180 in 1999. Hays and Caldwell County adjusted PCPI was somewhat lower at $18,520 and $15,248 respectively. Although the MSA maintains a higher adjusted PCPI, Hays County experienced a greater average annual growth since 1990 increasing at 2.66 percent annually compared to the MSA growth rate of2.3 percent. Through the year 2020, the Hays County adjusted PCPI is expected to increase at 1.29 percent annually reaching $24,264, while the MSA is projected to grow at 1.38 percent annually reaching $30,881. FORECASTING APPROACH The development of aviation forecasts proceeds through both analytical and judgmental processes. A series of mathematical relationships are tested to establish statistical logic and rationale for projected growth. However, the judgement of the forecast analyst, based upon professional experience, knowledge of the aviation industry, and their assessment of the local situation, is important in the final determination ofthe preferred forecast. The most reliable approach to estimating aviation demand is through the utilization of more than one analytical technique. Methodologies frequently considered include trend line projections, correlation/regression analysis, and market share analysis. Trend line projections are probably the simplest and most familiar of the forecasting techniques. By fitting growth curves to historical demand data, then extending them into the future, a basic trend line projection is produced. A basic assumption of this technique is that outside factors will continue to affect aviation demand in 2-4