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<br />indicated that a minimum of 12 aircraft <br />owners residing in Austin base 14 <br />aircraft at San Marcos. <br /> <br />For San Marcos Municipal Airport, <br />however, the primary service area can <br />be expected to defined by the aviation <br />demand of San Marcos and smaller <br />surrounding communities. San Marcos' <br />primary competition are the airports at <br />Lockhart and New Braunfels. These <br />airports, however, do not currently <br />provide comparable aviation facilities or <br />have the development potential as San <br />Marcos, especially for larger corporate <br />aircraft. The survey indicated at least <br />one aircraft owner residing in Lockhart <br />bases two aircraft at San Marcos. <br /> <br />Thus, the general aviation service area <br />for the San Marcos Municipal Airport <br />can be generally described as the city of <br />San Marcos extending north into <br />central Austin. The service area can be <br />expected to extend east, west, and south <br />approximately 30 miles. <br /> <br />Based Aircraft Forecasts <br /> <br />The number of based aircraft is the <br />most basic indicator of general aviation <br />demand. By first developing a forecast <br />of based aircraft, the growth of the <br />other indicators can be projected based <br />upon this growth and other factors <br />characteristic to San Marcos Municipal <br />Airport and the area it serves. The <br />rationale for forecasting general <br />aviation activity is presented below. <br /> <br />The first method for forecasting based <br />aircraft for San Marcos Municipal <br />Airport included a trend line projection. <br />Considering based aircraft at the <br /> <br />2-12 <br /> <br />airport between 1980 and 2000, the <br />time series provided a "r" value of 0.81. <br />As previously mentioned that an "r" <br />value of greater than 0.9 indicates a <br />strong correlation. The time series <br />projection yields 207 aircraft for 2005, <br />239 aircraft for 2010, and 303 aircraft <br />for 2020. The trend line projection <br />indicates a decrease in aircraft in 2005 <br />due to the large increase in aircraft in <br />2000. A trend line is developed <br />utilizing regression which attempts to <br />level the high and low points, drawing <br />a line through the middle. Several <br />other regression analyses were <br />conducted comparing based aircraft <br />with the socioeconomic elements <br />presented earlier. None of these <br />provided adequate correlations, or an <br />"r" value of any significance. This is <br />due to the strong growth of the area's <br />socioeconomic categories with sporadic <br />levels of based aircraft. <br /> <br />The next forecasting method compared <br />San Marcos based aircraft with active <br />general aviation aircraft in the United <br />States since 1980. Table 2C presents <br />historical based aircraft at San Marcos <br />and active general aviation aircraft in <br />the U.S. <br /> <br />As indicated in the table, San Marcos' <br />share of U.S. active aircraft has steadily <br />increased over the last 20 years, with a <br />slight downturn experienced in 1992. <br />The greatest increase was experienced <br />in the year 2000 due to aircraft owners <br />leaving the Austin area and basing at <br />San Marcos. <br /> <br />Two projections considering San <br />Marcos' market share of U.S. active <br />aircraft were developed. First, a <br />constant share projection was made <br />