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<br />share forecast considered that the <br />airport's based aircraft per 1,000 San <br />Marcos residents will remain at 5.34. <br />This would likely occur if aviation <br />growth remains constant with <br />population growth of the area. This <br />projection yields 348 based aircraft at <br />San Marcos by 2020. <br /> <br />Generally, based aircraft per 1,000 <br />residents follows a decreasing trend. <br />This decreasing trend typically <br />indicates that aircraft ownership does <br />not maintain the same growth rates of <br />the local population. A decreasing <br />trend forecast, as presented in Tabl~ <br />2D indicates 319 based aircraft at the <br />airport by 2020. <br /> <br />Due to the significant influence of the <br />Austin aviation demand has on San <br />Marcos, another forecast considering <br />aircraft ownership per 1,000 residents <br />in the Austin-San Marcos MSA was <br />developed. As with the previous <br />forecast, two projections were <br />considered, a constant and decreasing <br />ratio of based aircraft per 1,000 <br />residents. Following the constant share <br />ratio of 0.195 as presented in Table 2E, <br />the airport would have 340 aircraft by <br />2020. The decreasing ratio projection <br />yields 296 based aircraft. <br /> <br />TABLE2E <br />Based Aircraft vs. Population Projections <br /> San Marcos Austin-San Marcos Aircraft per <br />Year Based Aircraft MSA Population 1,000 Population <br />1980 51 589,651 0.086 <br />1985 100 758,504 0.132 <br />1992 86 901,854 0.095 <br />1998 124 1,105,918 0.112 <br />2000 227 1,164,320 0.195 <br /> Constant Share Projection <br />2005 255 1,306,212 0.195 <br />2010 283 1,448,998 0.195 <br />2020 340 1,741,058 0.195 <br /> Decreasing Share Projection <br />2005 248 1,306,212 0.19 <br />2010 268 1,448,998 0.185 <br />2020 296 1,741,058 0.17 <br /> <br />2-15 <br />