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in competition with other key airports within the primary and secondary market areas. Condition 2 will be based upon a status quo economic situation within the community and the surrounding areas, and will assume that other airports competing within the primary market area also remain in a status quo. The local economy and general economic well-being of the region and the state will assume to remain unchanged from the present. Condition 3 will assume a declining economy and the comparative analysis will stress San Marcos Municipal Airport's ability to maintain or attract aviation activity and clientele from within the market area. Development scenarios will be considered in terms of flexibility, adaptabiHty and a comparison of cost versus benefit of capital improvements within a declining market, and to defer or eliminate capital investment. There are a number of factors of significance in assessing the role of the airport. The most important of these are: . Area potential for increases in aviation demand, by locale. . City/Area aviation needs, and the propensity of the local population to use air transportation (all forms). . Proximity to largest numbers of potential users (note: this does not necessarily mean the largest population centers but to such users as business, government, etc.). . Attitude of airport sponsor toward airport improvements and development. . Access and convenience to users and potential users. . Economic and demographic characteristics of primary service area. . Expansion capability in terms of cost, te"ain, land values, utilities, etc. . Development constraints, including land use and regulatory constraints, environmental issues. Task 3.3 Comparative Analysis The final component in role assessment will include a comparative analysis of San Marcos Municipal Airport to other key airports in the system in terms of: . Airfield capacity . Facilities - existing and planned . Expansion capability . Financial strength . Urban growth potential . Land areas . Navigation aids . Relative importance in terms of airspace and airport assistance (FAA) At the completion of Task 3, the airport profile and its place within the primary aviation marketplace will have been defined. Because of the importance of this assessment and its impact upon the short- and long- term airport development program, a report will be presented to the sponsors at the completion of this task along with preliminary forecasts of aviation demand based upon the scenarios considered. TASK 4.0 - FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND Forecasts of aviation demand will be prepared for a planning period extending at least through the year 2010. These forecasts will satisfy the needs of demand/capacity analysis and the other needs of the Airport Master Plan and the relative community participation issues.